讓台灣的聲音進到華府:台灣民情、輿論戰及人民戰鬥意願研討會

7/7/2023

【讓台灣的聲音進到華府:台灣民情、輿論戰及人民戰鬥意願研討會 】 上週五(29日)「美國台灣觀測站」(US Taiwan Watch)與專門研究中國與印太議題的華府智庫「2049 計畫研究所」(Project 2049)共同舉辦研討活動,邀請 2049 計劃研究所資深主任易思安(Ian Easton)、台灣前總參謀長李喜明,以及前報導者副總編輯、美國國際民主協會顧問(National Democratic Institute,NDI)劉致昕,探討台灣民情、輿論戰及人民戰鬥意願,並由「美國台灣觀測站」成員 John Avila 主持。 ✨ 演講重點整理 台灣的「戰鬥意願」是華府外交政策圈高度關注的問題,因為意願的高低將直接影響美國對加強對台支持的意願。 從公民層面來說,最直接而且明顯反應台灣戰鬥意願的指標,就是近年民防教育和相關公民社會組織(civil society organizations,CSO)的增加。 劉致昕就提到,無論老少的廣大公民,都開始關注民防。 從長遠來看,增加國防預算以及進一步投資軍事部隊則是展現戰鬥意願的關鍵。另外,李喜明總長也表示,台灣政府支持民間的態度也非常關鍵。 在活動中,劉致昕分享了在俄烏戰爭的第一手觀察,他說,當我們現在詢問台灣民眾的戰鬥意願,這是在一個假設的背景下提問的,但當戰爭爆發,「這就只是生存問題,戰鬥的意願自然就會有。」 當被問及俄羅斯無端入侵烏克蘭如何改變了台灣對潛在衝突的看法時,發言者一致認為,烏克蘭讓台灣民眾開始正視「戰爭」。 李喜明總長呼籲台灣應該效法烏克蘭,建立自己的國土防衛部隊,易思安則指出,「不被承認為一個國家的外交障礙,讓台灣比烏克蘭更脆弱」,而劉致昕認為「烏克蘭和台灣可以,而且應該更多地對話。」 劉致昕直言,台灣媒體環境非常兩極分化,需要更多資源培養公眾的媒體素養,以及建立一個對抗內容農場的機制。 易思安則是針對疑美論指出,認為台美高階官員間,需要有更多的互動對話,並提到在過去美國對俄羅斯的態度保持低調,不想要刺激普丁,但這樣的態度並沒有助於美俄關係或讓美國成功避免戰爭。講者一致認為,除了安全議題外,美國還可以更重視台美間的文化和外交交流。 透過交流,美國不僅達到支持台灣防禦,同時還能夠降低部分民眾擔憂美國介入或武裝台灣只是出於自身利益。 🤔 為什麼觀測站要辦這場活動 觀測站在 2017 年成立,動機是看到眾多扭曲、錯誤的台美新聞報導,因此希望降低資訊落差,讓正確的內容更容易傳播。過去幾年,我們用各種方式解析台美關係,希望將龐大、艱深的美國政治轉譯給台灣的公民,而令人開心的是,隨著近幾年公民媒體識讀能力提升、外媒進駐台灣,以及台美關係不斷深化,我們認為台美關係的報導品質確實有所提升。然而下一個出現的問題是:隨著台美關係在政治、軍事、經貿上的交流加深,要如何將台灣的聲音帶進華府? 這場活動正是希望將台灣的觀點直接帶進華府的政策制定與學者圈中,當美國在討論台灣的「戰鬥意願」、在討論「疑美論」時,我們能否確保台灣的學者專家也在這些對話當中?這正是觀測站希望達到的。 這次特別感謝李喜明總長與劉致昕來到華府,觀測站也會在未來,持續將台灣的聲音帶到美國! 【Voices from Taiwan: Public Sentiment, Narrative Warfare, and Taiwan’s Will to Fight】 On June 29, US Taiwan Watch (USTW), a group of media creators focusing on US-Taiwan relations, and Project 2049, a DC-based think tank with expertise in China and Indo-Pacific issues, jointly hosted an event in Arlington, Virginia titled “Public Sentiment, Narrative Warfare, and Taiwan’s Will to Fight.” The panel was moderated by USTW’s John Avila, and featured a conversation with Ian Easton, Senior Director at Project 2049, Lee Hsi-ming, retired Admiral of the ROC Navy and former Chief of the General Staff of Taiwan, and Liu Chih-hsin, advisor to the National Democracy Institute. The goal of the panel is to bring Taiwan’s perspective directly to policymakers and scholars in Washington, especially on the important question of Taiwan’s public sentiment towards the United States, as well as how that sentiment has changed in recent years. The Washington foreign policy community has focused on the question of Taiwan’s “will to fight,” because it directly affects how willing the US is to bolster support for Taiwan. For the Taiwanese public, the most immediate, visible indication of a rising will to fight is in the increase of civil society organizations (CSOs) that are providing education and training in defense readiness. According to Liu, a wide range of citizens, both young and old, are taking up interest. In the longer term, increases in the defense budget and further investment in the armed forces will be key. Admiral Lee said the attitude of Taiwan’s government in supporting these civil efforts is also very crucial. When asked about how Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine has changed how Taiwan thinks about potential conflict, the speakers agreed that Ukraine pushed the issue of war front and center in Taiwan’s collective consciousness. Admiral Lee advocated for Taiwan to establish its own Territorial Defense Force after Ukraine’s example. Easton commented that “Taiwan is more vulnerable compared to Ukraine because of the diplomatic barriers from not being recognized as a country.” Even so, Liu said that “Ukraine and Taiwan could and should talk to each other more.” The panelist also spoke on how public sentiment is being manipulated in Taiwan. Liu said that the media environment in Taiwan is very polarized, and therefore more resources to cultivate media literacy within the public is needed. On US-Taiwan interaction, the speakers mentioned that the US could put more emphasis on cultural and diplomatic exchanges in addition to security issues. That way, the US could support Taiwan’s defensive posture while allay fears that US involvement and arming of Taiwan is purely motivated by self interest. Lastly, Liu commented that when we ask the Taiwanese about this now, it’s in a hypothetical context, but if and when war breaks out, “it’s just a matter of survival. The willingness to fight will naturally be there.”

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